Boiler Bay Beacon
BOILER BAY — A weak La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean is fading, according to National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, with neutral conditions expected in the coming weeks and El Niño favored by this summer.
The latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion released March 12 shows sea surface temperatures still slightly below average in the key monitoring region, but heat is building below the surface and trade winds are weakening. Forecasters give neutral conditions a 55 percent chance through May-July 2026. Then the odds shift: El Niño has a 62 percent chance of emerging during June through August and could stick around through the end of the year.
The ENSO probability chart from NOAA makes this transition clear. Gray bars representing neutral conditions dominate the near term, but red bars showing El Niño chances rise sharply starting in the June-August period.
For the central Oregon coast and much of the Northwest, the three-month seasonal outlook for April-May-June favors above-normal temperatures. On the temperature probability map, Oregon sits inside a large orange-shaded area indicating higher chances of warmer-than-average conditions this spring.
Precipitation is more uncertain but leans drier. The outlook map shows a broad brown area covering the Northwest, pointing toward below-normal rainfall for the three-month period.
Sea surface temperature maps also show the cold blue signature of La Niña slowly fading along the equator as warmer water begins to take over.
If El Niño does develop, it often brings warmer and drier winters to the Pacific Northwest. That could mean fewer strong storms this coming fall and winter, but it also raises the possibility of increased wildfire risk if dry conditions carry over.
NOAA updates both the ENSO outlook and the seasonal forecasts once a month. The next full update is scheduled for mid-April.
