Oregon’s central coast and much of the state are looking at relatively warm conditions through much of September before a clear shift to cooler and wetter weather as autumn arrives, according to the latest Seasonal Climate Forecast from Pete Parsons.

Issued July 16 by the Oregon Department of Forestry’s lead meteorologist, the outlook is based on three past years with similar ocean patterns to what we are seeing right now: 1957, 1982, and 1997. All three of those years saw the development of a strong or very strong El Niño by late fall or early winter. The forecast does not factor in NOAA’s separate prediction that El Niño will continue strengthening and become very strong by the September-November period and last at least into spring 2027.

The combined analog years point to enhanced west-southwest flow aloft over Oregon as El Niño strengthens in the tropical Pacific. That pattern lowers the odds of prolonged or extreme hot spells but raises the chances for increased shower and thunderstorm activity.

August 2026 Analog temperatures ranged from below average to slightly above average. None of the years featured major heat waves, though all had brief warm periods. Precipitation looks near or below average overall, but the analogs all included showery periods with areas of thunderstorms, especially in the second half of the month.

Along the central coast, that should translate to typical late-summer conditions: highs mostly in the mid-60s, cool nights, morning fog that clears by afternoon, and mostly dry weather punctuated by an occasional shower or thunderstorm.

September 2026 Relatively warm temperatures are likely at least into mid-month. The analogs were consistent in showing a transition to wetter conditions in the second half of the month, though 1957 held off the change the longest, waiting until the final week before shifting to much cooler and damper weather.

October 2026 The analogs turn more consistent here. They all featured stronger-than-usual westerly flow and cooler-than-normal temperatures aloft over Oregon. Temperatures should run cooler than average overall, with only brief mild stretches lasting a few days. Rainfall looks consistently above average, with near-average snowfall (a few inches) possible at the highest elevations in the Cascades.

Here on the Central Coast

Lincoln City and the surrounding central coast should enjoy a pleasant extension of summer-like weather through early and mid-September, with temperatures running at or a bit above average at times. That window could be ideal for beach days, hikes, and outdoor plans before the pattern changes.

By late September and into October, expect cooler temperatures and rising rain chances as we move into more typical fall conditions. The ocean will continue to moderate extremes, but it will start to feel noticeably more like autumn. The transition period itself may bring thunderstorm activity, which, combined with our ongoing drought, means enhanced wildfire risk for anyone heading into wooded or grassy areas.

These are seasonal averages, not day-by-day predictions. Weather can still vary quite a bit from week to week, and the three analog years do not line up perfectly on every detail. For daily planning, stick with National Weather Service forecasts. These longer-range outlooks get updated every month.

It is shaping up like a classic Oregon transition from summer to fall on the coast: warmth that lingers into September, followed by the return of cooler, wetter conditions. Whether you are local or just visiting, that shift is part of what makes the seasons here distinct.

August–October 2026 temperature (left) and precipitation (right) outlook for Oregon, based on the latest forecast from ODF Lead Meteorologist Pete Parsons. We cover these seasonal outlooks regularly so Lincoln County has a clear picture of what to expect heading into fall. (Image courtesy of Pete Parsons / Oregon Department of Forestry)

The full forecast PDF and past outlooks are available on the Oregon Department of Agriculture’s weather page. Parsons can be reached at 503-945-7448 or [email protected].

Disclaimer: This forecast is not associated with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.