Boiler Bay Beacon
SALEM — Oregon’s economists raised the state’s revenue outlook Wednesday and said a recession is no more likely than last spring, figures that hold up as a picture of Salem’s tax ledger more than Lincoln County’s paychecks.
The Office of Economic Analysis told lawmakers General Fund revenue is $55 million higher for the current 2025-27 biennium and $538 million higher for 2027-29 than in the May forecast. The projected ending balance is $400 million, up from about $345 million. Senior economist Michael Kennedy said about $400 million of the next-biennium gain comes from stronger personal income tax withholding. Corporate income taxes are weaker. Estate taxes are still short. The Statesman Journal and Oregon Capital Chronicle both matched those figures after the Capitol briefing.
Chief economist Carl Riccadonna called the picture “a story of continuity.” He said Oregon avoided the worst energy-price case feared in May and that state economic output has finally closed much of the gap with the nation. Those points match the briefing and the forecast text posted Wednesday.
The official release said recession risk was “largely unchanged.” The forecast document is more precise. Downside risk is 18 percent now, down from 22 percent last quarter. Most of that remaining risk is a moderate slump, not a collapse. Eighteen percent is not nothing. Riccadonna still pointed to high energy prices, sticky inflation and the chance that inflated technology stock values give way. Capital gains feed Oregon’s income tax. They also feed retiree accounts on this coast.
Oregon’s unemployment rate was 5.2 percent in July and has sat there for months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That part is right. The job count is softer than the tone. Statewide nonfarm payrolls were down 0.9 percent from a year earlier. Manufacturing, information, and leisure and hospitality all lost ground. Education and health care added jobs. Economists told reporters the extra withholding looks more like higher wages than a hiring wave.
Lincoln County is not tracking that average.
The Oregon Employment Department put the county’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 5.9 percent in June, above the state and well above the nation’s 4.2 percent. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment was 18,530. Leisure and hospitality accounted for 5,180 of those jobs, including 4,940 in hotels and restaurants. That is more than one in four local payroll jobs. When the state says hospitality is slipping, it shows up here on Highway 101, in the same rooms-and-restaurants economy the Beacon flagged in January after the Toledo mill cuts and a weaker year for onshore landings.
Visitors still spend. Dean Runyan Associates, in the latest Travel Oregon impact study, put Lincoln County travel spending at $712.7 million in 2024, up 2 percent from 2023. Combined state and local travel-related taxes came to $41.8 million. Hotels, motels and short-term rentals made up most overnight spending. That is the latest full visitor year on the books. It does not yet measure this summer, when the coast still bets on aquarium traffic, Hatfield visitors and a full Saturday night.
A January study for the Economic Development Alliance of Lincoln County, reported locally, found a longer shift underneath the motels. Investment income and transfer payments, mainly Social Security and pensions, now make up about 55 percent of personal income in the county. Worker earnings fell to 45 percent. Statewide, transfers and investment income are closer to 42 percent. Retirement checks can steady a mild slowdown. They also mean a market drop or weaker buying power on fixed income lands harder here than in a factory county, a mix the Beacon has tracked as timber and fishing recede and pensions take more of the load.
Population is no longer lifting the boat. Portland State University’s certified estimate counted 50,428 residents in 2025, down 342 from 2024 and the first decline in decades. From 2020 through 2025 the county recorded far more deaths than births. People still moved in. Not enough to cover the loss.
The housing market cooled at the sale price and stayed expensive for workers. Redfin put the recent median sale near $499,000, down 3.2 percent from a year earlier, with homes sitting longer. Local broker tallies for July put the median closer to $480,000, with more listings and fewer pendings. Zillow’s typical-value index was about $479,000 in late July. The sources do not match to the dollar. They point the same way. Sale prices are off the peak. One-bedroom rents still run roughly $1,300 to $1,400. That gap is the workforce problem employers keep describing.
The $55 million and $538 million revisions are real, and they will shape the budget lawmakers write this winter. They will not, by themselves, fill a midweek room in Lincoln City or a slip in Newport. This county runs on visitors, marine work, health care, government and a large retired population. Statewide corporate tax weakness matters less here than gas prices, grocery bills and whether people can afford the drive west of the Coast Range.
Riccadonna said energy costs remain a drag even if they no longer look like a recession trigger. That is the local wire. Guests drive here. Households heat here.
The next state update is due in November, before the 2027 session. Monthly jobs numbers from the Employment Department will show whether the coast is hiring. The next travel-impact reports will show whether the summer matched Salem’s calmer voice.
